Friday, 12 October 2018

London St. Thomas Third Quarter Market Update 2018


Our Trading Area:

The Real Estate Market is still “Hot” with prices rising and low inventories across our trading area. Sales on a year-to-date basis are still below last year’s record of 28,831 sales for the area by -19.5%. We started 2018 with sales running 30% below 2017. That gap has narrowed by a strong 3rd quarter. July was 97.3% of last year. August was 101.2% of last year and September hit 89.8% of last year. The average price of a Home in our trading area moved up the first 9 months of 2018 by 8.1% over the first nine months of 2017 and now sits at $395,197 for a home in our trading area. It was at $365,592 as of last September based on a rolling year average.

City of London:

The number of homes sold this year in the City of London itself are now only off -18.5%. Remember we started over 30% below last year’s record year. We have explained previously that a balanced market (good supply and good demand) is 6 months supply. We hit 4 months’ supply in July then dropped to 3 months for August and September. This puts significant upward pressure on prices. This year the City of London delivered Home Owners an average minimum of 100% of their list price, every single month of this year, because of this limited supply market. It is currently at this level. This is a quieter time of year but still very active. The number of days that it took to sell the average home in London moved between 23 and 24 days for July, August and September and now sits at 23 days,

As you can see on the graph above, selling price of homes in the City have risen nicely. Last year at this time the Average Selling Price of a Home in London reached $337,681. Home Owners will be pleased to know that this year the Average Selling Price is up above my projection and sits up 10.2% or $34,393 of the first 9 months of 2018. September as you can see by the Graph above hit $400,000.
Buyers coming into or Living in London don’t like paying more than $600,000 for premium homes. The number of homes sold this year priced between $600K to $700K is about 40% lower than homes prices between $500K and 600K. Here is a graph that illustrated activity by price this year. Remember this is the top end of our market.

London North:

Sales in London North are now only down -20.2% on a year to date basis over last year’s record. This is a little more than the City shortfall. Don’t forget this area has the highest average price. Once again, the number of Home sold in the 3rd Quarter have been much closer to 2017 3rd Quarter results and are down only -7.6%. Inventories are low, running at 4 months supply of homes for sale in September up from 3 months supply in August. It took 29 days to sell a home in September, up marginally from 26 days in July and August. What does all this mean? Well, its
still very much a Seller’s Market based on demand and the number of homes coming to market that are offered for sale. Home Owners are consistently getting 100% of asking price.



As you can see by the graph above, London North has the highest average selling prices in the City. The Average Home Selling Price last year reached $410,594 in North London. This year prices for the first 9 months have reached +10.5% or a gain of $43,150 for an average Home. The new Average Selling price in North London is now $453,744. One other interesting number to share with you. In September the average selling price based on only 171 homes sales reached an average of $486,640. See my comments on the London Buyer $600,000 maximum price barrier. Pricing a home at $599,900 has brought about multiple bidding wars. As time passes the acceptance of homes priced between $600,000 and $700,000 will become more normal.

Remember when Buying, or Selling, look at comparable homes. Your decision to Sell, or to Buy, will be based on a realistic price.

We must stress again, that we believe this upward price trend will continue but should slow next year to more normal annual increases. We recommend that Buyers “MOVING UP” or “FIRST TIME BUYER”. Do it right now! Sellers that want to “DOWNSIZE” Don’t Do It Now! You are throwing away equity, unless you must. Remember that there are always Equity Mortgage’s available…

London South:

Sales in London South due to moderate price range have performed better than the North on a year-to-date basis. The decline over last year’s record Sales of Homes is only -18.4%. The number of Home offered for sale now sits at 4 months of supply. This is up marginally over August 2018 at 3 months supply. The average days to sell, because of the slower time of year, has been running between 22 and 23 days for July and August and then back down to 22 days for September. Because of this limited supply of homes for sale, the average Home Owner in
the South end of the City of London is still getting 100% or better of their asking price. The average has been holding at 100% for the last 3 months. What does all this mean?
.
Sale prices for Homes in South London are now up 9.0% over the first 9 months of 2017. This represents an average increase in value and equity of $31,391. The average Home in South London now sells for $368,910.00 up from $338,516 in September last year, based again on nine months of sales of homes. As you can see things are still moving up…$371,143 in August and $401,524 (based only on an average of about 200 homes a month in South London). We must stress again that we believe this upward price trend will continue but should slow next year to more normal annual increases. We recommend that Buyers “MOVING UP” or “FIRST TIME BUYER”. Do it right now! Sellers that want to “DOWNSIZE” Don’t Do It Now! You are throwing away equity, unless you must. Remember that there are always Equity Mortgage’s available…

London East :

Sales in London East due to lowest average price range in the City have performed better than the rest on a year-to-date basis. The decline over last year’s record Sales of Homes is only -16.6%. The number of homes in this area available for sale sits at an average of only 3 months supply up marginally from August when it dipped to 2 months only. This limited supply of Homes offered for sale has dropped the average number of days to sell a Home from 22 days in July up to 23 days in August down to only 18 days in September. London East, having the most economical tradition pricing for the City of London, delivered the Average Home Owner 100% of asking in July and August and rose to 101.5% in September because of the very limited supply of homes offer for sale.


In 2017, the average home price is East London sat at $254,630 on a year to date basis to September 30. Prices have now risen across the East by a whopping 13.2% or +$33,575. This Area continues to be an affordable area for First Time Buyers to get into this crazy Market. The rules here are the same as the rest of the City. If you are a Buyers “MOVING UP” or “FIRST TIME BUYER”. Do it right now! Sellers that want to “DOWNSIZE” Don’t Do It Now! You are throwing away equity, unless you must. Remember that there are always Equity Mortgage’s available…Nobody should be paying a Landlord, if they can afford to buy! You just lose money. Look at Toronto and the other major centers of the world… Most people trying to enter those Markets can’t afford to do it. Once you are a Home Owner, you are able maintain your equity build position.

St.Thomas:

I have been stating for some time that I believe St. Thomas is an opportunity Market. It is apparent that Buyers are picking up on the bargains in this Bedroom Community of City of London. We have stated that the year-to-date performance for our trading area sits down at -19.5% when compared to last year’s record sales of Homes. St. Thomas is only down 13.8% against last year’s number of homes sold over 9 months. In the last 2 months St. Thomas Home Sales have been above last year for the same period. The number of homes offered for sale has consistently sat at 3 months average supply, per month, since June. The number of days to sell a home in this area reached 25 days on average in September. Clearly this continues to be a Seller’s market with a price advantage. Home owners have been getting 100% of asking price every month since January.


Believe it or not, the average Home in the City of St. Thomas for the first 9 months of 2018 still sits below $300,000. At the end of September after 9 months in 2017, a record year, the average price reached $255,436. In 2018 the average price in this area rose +16.4% or $41,816.00. This represents the highest gain in value in the area and based on an average price of less than $300,000, this drive upward is likely to continue. The Selling or Buying rules here are more applicable than ever! If you are a Buyers “MOVING UP” or “FIRST TIME BUYER”. Do it right now! Sellers that want to “DOWNSIZE” Don’t Do It Now! You are throwing away equity, unless you must. Remember that there are always Equity Mortgage’s available…Nobody should be paying a Landlord, if they can afford to buy! You just lose money. Look at Toronto and the other major centers of the world… Most people trying to enter those Markets can’t afford to do it. Once you are a Home Owner, you are able maintain your equity build position.

Summary:

We are here to “Help”, You, Your Family, Your Neighbours, Your Co-Workers and Your Friends! Any time to Buy or Sell, is a good time in this “Hot Market”! Why? If you are paying rent the Housing Market is leaving you behind. Any home ownership is keeping pace for your ability to move up as you build equity too. It is also a good time to move up, let’s say the difference is value of your Home to the Home you want to Buy is $75,000. Doing it now, may put $5000 to $7500 future equity in your pocket, if the Market moves anther 6% to 10 %. This is not a time to procrastinate. An average of 2,327 home sell every month across our trading area in 2018.


If we are running close to last year’s sales of homes now, we should Buy and Sell close to 6000 homes between October and December. Based on the price trends in the last few months we will see additional price gains.

If you are thinking of liquidating or downsizing, “DON’T DO IT NOW “, unless you have to.

CALL TODAY:

Gib Heggtviet                          Mary Heggtveit
Real Estate Broker                   Sales Representative
Direct: 519-535-3975              Direct: 519-535-7355
                    
 Gib@YourFavouriteRealtors.com 
Mary@YourFavouriteRealtors.com

Prices Don’t stay Down EVER! Look at the average prices for 2008 when World recession hit and 2009 when we started recovery in back half.


Don’t “Wish You Did”
Call Now: 519-421-2626

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