Your London & St.Thomas Market Update for Third Quarter of 2016

Your Third Quarter Market Update for London, St. Thomas and Area.

Our Trading Area:

The year has been outstanding for those of you who purchased their new home last year and earlier this year.   The average home selling price is now up $18,006, an average of 6.5% over the last 12 months.  The average selling price of a home in our trading area, as of September 30, 2016, now sits at $297,231. 

What is driving this increase? The number of homes sold across our trading area has increased over the same period in 2015 by 5.9%, pushing prices up because of poor supply.  Inventories have decreased in this same period, over what was available last year, by 8.4%. 5,262 Buyers since January 1, 2016 have had 977 fewer homes to choose from.

What can we expect? We can look at trends. Let’s look at only the month of September by itself…. The number of homes offered for sale had decreased again by 5.2% across our trading area…The number of homes sold in September rose by 8.4% placing more pressure on upward pricing.  Unless a significant number of homes come to market changing this balance this trend will continue into next year.

The qualifications have changed for those putting less than 25% down on a mortgage. This will reduce the number of qualified Buyers. This may slow the market. CMHC now requires qualification at 5% interest for 5 years to buy a home. 

On the other side, there are Buyers coming from Greater Toronto to our market.  They can live mortgage free, and in many cases, have a large cash balance in the bank (remember your home equity is tax free). They can continue to bid up prices in a tight inventory market.  Our belief is that this tight inventory and strong sales environment will continue into 2017.  Just matching 2016 Sales would be a healthy market.

North London:

Anyone who knows me is aware, I have predicted that the average price of a home in North London would rise by 10% by the end of 2016.  As of September 30, 2016, based on the last 12 months, the average home is now worth $374,839 which is 9.4% above last September’s average.  This means the average homeowner has enjoyed an increase in value of $32,335. The number of homes sold across London North, for the first nine months of 2016, has increased by 11.7% over the year before.   The inventory of home offered for sale in the first 9 months dropped 5.5% versus the same period a year ago.  The average home price in this area is still rising. ($404,735 versus $348,541 for the month of September 2015). The number of homes coming to market for sale for this September is down 11.1% over September 2015.  Sales for the month were off marginally by 1.6%. With inventories, still below 2015…Prices will continue to rise.

London South:

As of September 30, 2016, based again on the average increase over 12 months, our selling prices rose 8.5%. The average sale price now sits at $321,756. This represents an annual increase in value of $25,838 for homeowners in the South.  The number of homes offered for sale dropped during the first 9 months of 2016 by 8.5%, further limiting the choices available for buyers.  Sales rose, as well versus this same period a year ago, by 2.4%. In my opinion, the rise in prices of homes will continue driven by limited supply. As an example, the number of homes being listed for sale in September dropped 6% while sales for the month rose a whopping 16.2%

London East:

Once again looking at the average increase in the cost of a home over the last 12 months, prices rose 5.2% or $11, 170. The average sale price now sits at $225,714 across the East of London. The number of homes sold for the first 9 months of 2016 increased as well, rising 3.6%. During this same period the number of homes being offered for sale dropped significantly by 7.8%. The number of homes being listed for sale is continuing to drop.  In the month of September home coming to market dropped again by 3.1% while sales increased by 8.4%. Prices should continue to rise, as the reduced number of homes available continues to put pressure on upward prices. It continues to be the most affordable area in the city.

St. Thomas:

Prices in St Thomas have risen 5.6% or $11,739 on an average house selling price of $221,103. This is based on 12 months of sales history.   The overall London St Thomas Real Estate board is reflecting a 6.4% market increase over the same period.  This number is $17,905 with a new average price of $297,231. Probably a better reflection of the area and rural sales mix. Homes offered for sale are continuing below last year with the number of homes sold sitting 5.4% above last year.  The tight supply of homes offered for sale is continuing for the overall trading area. St Thomas inventory jumped during September from 50 homes listed in September 2015 to 75 Homes listed in September 2106. Sales for the month jump as well from 50 last September to 70 this September.  

Summary:

CMHC (Central Mortgage and House Corporation) insures all Bank Mortgages with down payments less than 25%. The changes in higher income qualifications initiated by CMHC, we believe the number of homes offered for sale will remain in line with this year. This projection is based on supply and demand repeating at the same levels as occurring in this calendar year. If demand increases over 2016 and the number of homes available does not change, prices will take off.

Basically, there is no better time to buy your first home. There is no better time to Sell your existing home and make that move to a larger home.   At the same time, there is no worse time to liquidate or move down, as prices will continue to rise.

New for First time Home Buyers, Finance Minister Charles Sousa said first time homebuyers won’t pay any land transfer tax on the first $368,000 of a purchase price after January 1, 2017. Call us today if you or someone you know can benefit from our help.

Gib & Mary Heggtveit                              

519-421-2626

www.YourLondonRealtor.com

Market Update London Area 2015

London and Area Market Overview 
for Residential Homes:
Sales increased across our Real Estate Board Jurisdiction by a whopping 8.5% when compared to 1 year ago.  The average price of a home in the area, for this 12 month period, rose by $11,906  or another +4.4%.  The average house price across Middlesex and Elgin including all major centres now will cost the average buyer $281,016.   Still one on the most affordable Major markets in Canada.

Will this trend continue? Traditional year over year inventories declined marginally.  This is also true of the last 2 months of the year.  This means prices should continue to rise marginally and will also depend on what comes to market for sale in the Spring and Summer of 2016.  The Bank of Canada appears not to be pushing up interest rates significantly in Canada and have implemented programs to slow down Markets like Vancouver and Toronto using CMHC (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation).   These changes will not affect the average buyer in London.  It remains an excellent time to move up or buy that first home.

City of London:
The average house price in the city of London now sits at $295,096, this represents an increase in value of 4.8% or $13,507 over the last 12 months.   The number of homes that sold across the city during this same period increased by 7.8%.  Looking ahead there is no doubt that 2016 is poised for another year of great performance. Looking at the last 2 months individually we found that the number of homes that sold remained relatively flat with 2014 numbers, but the average selling price in each month rose once again, up 4.8% in November and 10.8% in December. December year end inventories at the same time, (what Consumers have to choose from) finished down by 16.4%.

London South: 
The average house price for London South (below Oxford), has now broken the $300,000 threshold for the first time.  The average home now sits up 5.94% versus a year ago at $305,647. The average home owner made $17,025 during the last 12 month in increased home equity.  Inventories of homes available for sale in London South were lower and down 5.9% for the year. This resulted in only a 3.7% increase in unit sales while delivering the higher home price for the area due to few homes to choose from. This reduction in available homes for purchase pushed the Sales/Listing ratio up from a 56% chance of selling your home during the listing period to a 62% chance of selling your home during the listing period. London south was the hottest segment of London in 2015.  The trend is likely to continue in 2016 as the number of homes listed for sale in the South in December declined by 26.4% once again putting pressure on inventory in the South.

London North:
The North continues to grow year over year,  This area had the highest growth on Inventories for the year increasing by 9.4%, keeping the market competitive by giving the Consumer lots of choices.  This tempered the growth in pricing of the average home but still delivered an solid increase of 2.83% or $9,535 in average value for the area. The average home price now sits at $346,638 for the area. Sales continued Strong because of area desirability, up 11.7% versus a year ago.  Prices in the North are projected to grow marginally as it appears once again inventories and sales will stay in balance with lots to choose from.  New Listings of homes offered for sale in December 2015 were up over December 2014 by a whopping  53.6%. If this increase in homes offered for sale continues each month values will increase only marginally,  A balanced market is ideal for all parties involved, excellent value and reasonable return on equity.

London East:
The East of London (basically east of Richmond except below Hamilton Road) continues to be the most affordable part of London and area. The average house price now sits at $222,192 up 3.59% or $7,699 versus the previous 12 months. The East enjoyed the second highest percentage growth in number of homes sold during the calendar year increasing by 6.4%.  There has been pressure on inventories in this area similar to the South.  The number of homes coming to market in the East actually declined by 6.8% over the twelve month period.   This reduction in the number of homes to choose from helped to drive prices upward.  Listings coming to market in December 2015 were down 10% versus the previous year.  This will marginally assist value improvement in this area for current home owners if this trend continues.   The Sell to Listing Ratio (chance of securing a sale during the listing period) is the highest in the city at 66%